Amazingly, we cannot reconstruct events that provoked global impacts 600 years ago. World food reserves worldwide would last 74 days following UN estimates in 2012. Not surprisingly, petroleum accounts for over 90% of this country’s exports. Preparedness should involve local/national, then international and planetary efforts. These require careful planning and organization. But the super-volcano remains unaccounted for. A sort of “Winter is coming” of Games of Thrones if we dare make that reference. In this chart we see the average daily supply of calories (measured in kilocalories per person per day) by world region, from 1961 to 2013. Calderas are more complicated than volcanoes because the exit point of magma is not easy to spot in advance. A regional workshop on food reserve management and policies in Southeast Asia was held on April 2017 at the SEARCA Headquarters in Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines. Apparently that year Summer did not really happen in the region. food reserves (FR) in enhancing food and nutrition security in developing countries, and make recommendations on how to use food reserves (in complement to other tools), taking into account the specificities on the context and the constraints of World Trade Organization (WTO) disciplines. The "new normal" conditions in Southeast Asia compels SEARCA and all of its key partners to initiate anew a paradigm shift towards accelerating transformation through agricultural innovation (ATTAIN). For example, Professor Bill McGuire, director of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London and a member of Tony Blair’s Natural Hazards working group reportedly stated: “Approximately every 50,000 years the Earth experiences a super-volcano. iv C. L. Gilbert - Food Reserves in Developing Countries Prices for key food commodities touched record levels earlier this year, repeating the highs last seen in 2008. Trees did not blossom, canals froze in Italy, paralyzed by heavy snowfalls. Interestingly that century featured a series of colder periods called the Little Ice Age (LIA). First, countries should designate food and nutrition services as essential, while also implementing protections for those who work in the sector. There are around 20 known super-volcanoes on this planet. Although real prices may be low by historical standards, sharp upward swings and downward corrections have impeded the ability of farmers to respond appropriately to both short The approaches used under this activity were as follows: Activity 2: Regional workshop (Capacity building), Activity 3. Define and understand the importance of keeping food stocks and reserves, and the rationale behind each country’s decision to stockpile; Identify the commodities that countries stockpile and the modalities and mechanisms of food stockpiling that have been adopted, including physical, virtual, trade, national, and regional mechanisms; Examine the implications of a changing regional trade regime on a country’s food stocks, as well as the impact of individual country’s food reserves on a regional stockpiling mechanism such as APTERR; and. Floating pumice rafts can cause problems for ships at sea including engine stalls. Very recently a 480km long, 50km wide pumice raft, floating 0.6m above ocean surface appeared near New Zealand. europarl.europa.eu. Stockpiling is still the dominant strategy employed by Southeast Asia in ensuring food availability. Gold Reserves by Country. In fact, there is a volcanic crater one kilometre deep in the Pacific Ocean that could be the “mystery” super-volcano. This page provides values for Gold Reserves reported in several countries. Germany and China hold the largest gold reserves in Europe and Asia, respectively. By avoiding or smoothing price surges on these markets, food reserves can contribute to improving food and … Countries are starting to stockpile other commodities aside from rice owing to increasing incomes, diversifying diets, and changing lifestyle. paper money), or trading peers, during the eras of the gold standard, and also as a store of value, or to support the value of the national currency.. Its eruption is the most powerful volcanic eruption in recorded history and summed up to be one of the greatest catastrophes. This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Gold Reserves. Citing the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, the news agency said stocks had declined to less than 30,000 metric tons, a fraction of what the country of 200 million people requires. Anyways, unfortunately, scores of humans died, famine struck. That is eight years earlier than the “Naples event” cited earlier. With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently. Country survey completed in eight Southeast Asian countries, namely, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam; Country reports on existing food reserve management practices and policies, key issues and concerns, and way forward; and. The story is an unfinished one, as apparently inherent uncertainties cloud ice cores dating and cognitive biases may have lead to connecting dots with biased lines. What would occur to our societies when World food reserves worl… A strategic grain reserve is a government stockpile of grain for the purpose of meeting future domestic or international needs. But, even more worryingly, a super-volcano could also burst out from somewhere that has never erupted before, such as under the Amazon rainforest.”. At the regional level, a balance in food production, exports, and imports is important to ensure that there is stability in food security. According to Global Times, an English-language mouthpiece for the regime owned by the Chinese Communist Party, the country has only about a year’s worth of China’s two main grains, rice and wheat, in reserve. poverty-stricken countries such as Ethiopia and Eritrea buy arms on a massive [...] scale instead of building up sufficient food reserves. There has been a notable shift towards stockpiling for export purposes for the rice-exporting countries such as Thailand. That is at the threshold of credibility following “industrial” standards. Trees did not blossom, canals froze in Italy, paralyzed by heavy snowfalls. In the process they would try to extract beneficial energy. This data is annually available and is updated by the FAO, extending back until 1961. China has been a particularly big buyer of everything from corn to rice. The workshop aimed to improve understanding on the role that food reserves and stockpiles can play in national and regional food security. One of the biggest challenges faced by Southeast Asian countries in relation to food security is climate change. The table has current values for Gold Reserves, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency plus links to historical data charts. The appearance of pumice rafts in seas and oceans is a well documented consequence of large volcanic eruptions. Cross-disciplinary studies defined the date of that eruption to 1453.

There are many large corporations working in Canada’s privatized oil sector, including Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Syncrude.With 157,800,000,000 barrels of proven oil reserves, Iran takes the fourth place on this list. Four years later a mini-glaciation occurred. Depending on source it was estimated the UK food reserves were between 60 and 90 days’ worth. Convergent risk assessments integrate areas that are significant to an organization, such as operational risk generated by various hazards or…, Business as usual definition in Risk Assessment, Business as usual definition in risk assessment, as defined in our day-to-day practice, is an unchanging state of affairs. At the same time, policymakers have been slow to act, reluctant to move away from twenty or more years of economic orthodoxy that has insisted supply shocks are best resolved through international trade alone. It is still active today. Was it an asteroid impact instead? 3.4.4 Synthesis on the role for food reserves in managing shortages and price surges on food markets 22 3.5 Designing food reserves to manage food crises 24 3.5.1 Choosing the products to be included in the food reserves 25 3.5.2 Determining the quantities to be stored 26 3.5.3 Rules for triggering the use of food reserves 28 It is also the largest volcanic lake in the world occupying the caldera of a supervolcano. Mormon Religion commanded maintaining a full year of food and emergency supplies. A vast study has rehabilitated the role of food reserves in managing famines and preventing chronic malnutrition. Tambora is a stratovolcano in Indonesia. India's mining sector contributes 11% of the country's industrial gross domestic product (GDP) … In many countries, public food reserve programmes It is in this context that the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) and the members of the Southeast Asian University Consortium for Graduate Education in Agriculture and Natural Resources (University Consortium/UC) collaborated on a research project entitled "Food Reserves: A Comparative Study on Food Reserve Management and Policies in Southeast Asia." In 1465 the sky in Naples turned deep azure. Efforts should include dealing with the flow of survivors, relocation, food shortage and travel difficulties, on top of possible epidemic and ruinous economic backlashes. That was in August 2012, but other rafts also appeared near Fiji in 1979 and 1984 from eruptions around Tonga. The only unfortunate point is that there are no signs of such a large explosive event on site, meaning not enough volcanic deposits. RSIS Commentaries. That…, Foreseeability and predictability in risk assessments, The discussion of terms such as Foreseeability and predictability in risk assessments is rather common. Rice is a good starting point to study food reserve management processes and policies in Southeast Asia. Four years later a mini-glaciation occurred. Growing government interest and support for food reserves has been evident in various international forums of late. Your email address will not be published. Encouraging the establishment of food reserves at the local, national or regional levels;(c) Improving the management of grain stocks at the global level, including . What we know is that two thousand years ago Mount Vesuvius destroyed Pompeii. There is a need to review current trade policies and regulations to ensure that food security and international trade are harmonized, especially with the goal of creating a common ASEAN market. Indeed a couple months reserve of non perishable food could be a good idea for anyone. Tambora was one to two orders of magnitudes larger that Mount St. Helen and Pinatubo eruptions respectively (100 times, 10 times). Required fields are marked *. Activity 2 – One regional workshop open to all interested SE Asian countries and to multi-lateral organizations on food stocks and reserves, in relation to food security. However, we can monitor seismic swarms and deformations of the crust and win a bit of time to order evacuations. Anecdotal information shows that countries stockpile food, particularly rice, in different modalities. Of course there is great uncertainty in these predictions. This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Gold Reserves. It does not cost much, but could save your life. The main sources of making food available in most Southeast countries are what Teng1 has called the "food taps" and comprise the following – self production, imports via trade, contract farming, stocks and reserves, and food aid. Explore the feasibility of establishing other types of regional stockpiles beyond reserves. Lake Toba is the largest lake in Indonesia. Listening to the news, being ready to leave are good rules in disaster prone areas anywhere in the world. One of them, in particular, has never been found, as we discuss below. Places to watch now are those that have erupted in the past, such as Yellowstone in the US and Toba. Have a survival baggage ready, park the car with a full tank, ready to go. study reviews experiences with food reserves in a sample of eight countries representative of the Sahel, East and Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa. Prices of main food crops such as wheat and maize are now close to those that sparked riots in 25 countries in 2008. Copyright © 2013 Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. World food reserves worldwide would last 74 days. Thus, food stockpiling mechanisms still differ from country to country. Representatives from all target countries attended the event. Establishing emergency food reserves or emergency food stockpiles can be defined as the process of holding back a certain amount of a food commodity from the current production/procurement year for use in the future, anticipating shocks from droughts and other climate-related calamities (Gardner 1979; Caballero-Anthony et al. NASA and other groups are reportedly thinking about ways to artificially cool down magma. The United States is the world's largest holder of gold with official gold reserves of 8,134 tonnes. To maintain a supply of rice stocks for the population, most countries in Southeast Asia adopt a mix of trade instruments such as government-to-government trade, local procurement, and procurement through the private sector. Activity 1 – (i) Explication of the techniques, processes, and responsible agencies for managing food stocks and reserves in all SEAsian countries; (ii) Collation of all relevant policies on food stocks, reserves, and stockpiles in SE Asia; and (iii) Identification of regional or non-government food stocks and reserves. In the past, climate changed, with cold snaps, there was a Little Ice Age although we do not know if the Little Ice Age was a consequence of those phenomena or not. Given the potential role that stocks and reserves can play to stabilize food availability at the individual country and regional level, it is important to research the policies, processes, and technologies, which allow this to be a viable strategy in Southeast Asia. Self-aid kits similar to quake-preparedness ones, can also help each one of us to cope. Pumice could clog Nuclear power plants cooling water intakes as well, hundreds of miles away from the eruption. Countries which adopted this approach included: Ethiopia (with an initial reserve size of 180,000 tonnes), Mozambique (60,000 tonnes), and Tanzania (100,000 tonnes). The team of experts, made up of Roger Blein (Issala), Raphael Beaujeu and Henri Leturque (IRAM), The Yellowstone Caldera, a known supervolcano that reportedly erupted 600,000 years ago is considered to have been ten times Tambora, one thousand times larger than Mount St. Helen. Consequences of a major volcanic eruption range widely and we would be negligent if we were not contemplating the worse. The specific project objectives were to: Activity 1: Survey and analysis of food reserve management and policies among SEA countries (R&D). Ironically, it is also home to the largest oil reserves in the world, accounting for about 18% of the total global reserves. The United States, being one of the world’s largest economies, imports a total of $133 billion USD worth of food and food products, followed by China at $105.26 billion USD, Germany at $98.90 billion USD, Japan at $68.86 billion USD, the United Kingdom at $66.54 billion USD, the Netherlands at $64.38 billion USD, France at $62.29 billion USD, Italy at $51.34 billion USD, Belgium at $40.87 billion … This initiative was in line with SEARCA's umbrella program on Food and Nutrition Security for Southeast Asia 2014-2019, which has also been adopted by the University Consortium since August 2014. At a country level, there is an extreme variability in TRWR: from a minimum of 10 m 3 /inhabitant in Kuwait to more than 100 000 m 3 /inhabitant in Canada, Iceland, Gabon and Suriname. 222/2013 dated 4 December 2013, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture, Technical Assistance and Consulting Services, Seed Fund for Research and Training (SFRT), Food Reserves: A Comparative Study on Food Reserve Management and Policies in Southeast Asia, SEARCA and the Provincial Government of Quezon Ink Agreements for Scaling Agricultural and Rural Development Model, SEARCA webinar tackles prospects of biofortification to address food and nutrition insecurity, AIM, NVSU teams emerge as Innovation Olympics 2.0 finalists. Food reserves At the global climate talks in Bonn, Germany last month, countries agreed for the first time on an agriculture work program designed to identify the best strategies to respond to climate change and protect food security. Collate and assess all studies on food stocks and stockpiling thus far and conduct survey and focus group discussions where needed, so as to understand the rationale behind countries' decision to stockpile, identify the commodities that countries stockpile, the modalities and mechanisms of food stockpiling adopted, relevant government policies; and. Thus the Kuwae is likely not the cause of the global impact. The analysis prompted two main conclusions: these public food stocks are particularly useful in certain contexts, such as in the Sahel, and their impact on food security is boosted by appropriate governance structures. Tagged with: Lake Toba, mega volcano eruption, Recorded History, Category: Consequences, Mitigations, Risk analysis, Risk management, […] World food reserves worldwide would last 74 days […], Your email address will not be published. The main sources of making food available in most Southeast countries are what Teng 1 has called the "food taps" and comprise the following – self production, imports via trade, contract farming, stocks and reserves, and food aid. Gold Reserves. A surge in attacks on Nigerian farmers is having a knock-on effect on the country's food reserves, Bloomberg has reported. Publication (Knowledge Management). These traces are spikes in acidity in ice cores which date back to the 15th century. Just to give a perspective, the formation of the Campi Flegrei caldera, 39,000 years ago created the cliffs of Sorrento, on the other side of the bay of Naples. Like usual, at Riskope we…, Learn more about our services by contacting us today. Based on those findings one can safely assume the eruption was significantly bigger than the giant Tambora stratovolcano eruption in 1815. The fact that World food reserves worldwide would last 74 days does not mean we cannot survive a supervolcano eruption. The Deutsche Bundesbank currently holds approximately 3,367 tonnes of gold. Results of Activity 1 will be shared at this workshop. No one can locate the culprit with any certainty despite the fact that entire large mountains may have exploded and vaporized, new islands appeared, cities destroyed. Traces of its eruption are visible from Antarctica to Greenland. (2012) Using my own value system I reckon the UK has about 3 days’ worth of food available and that is held by the Supermarkets not the government, so possibly by day seven there will be lots of starving people DEMANDING food, so base your prep planning accordingly. No. However, the implementation of  such solutions is far away and many even questions their feasibility. It killed tens of thousands of people and plunged South East Asia into darkness, due to an umbrella of volcanic ash, for a week. Additionally, the workshop was used to identify implications of a changing regional trade regime (such as the AEC2015) on a country’s food stocks, as well as the impact of each individual country’s food reserves on regional stockpiling mechanism. There is very little variation in the countries’ rationale behind food stockpiling. That being said, a large eruption with climate alteration magnitude would be a large scale challenge for humanity, our societies and possibly our survival. India. A super-volcano is 12 times more likely than a large meteorite impact (we will discuss this hazard soon in this blog). The findings of the study have A working party had already been set up by the CSD to study the possible use of surplus agricultural commodities in building up national reserves and submitted its report in June 1957. Nevertheless the Kuwae might have been the cause of a series of other mishaps across Europe, Scandinavia, Turkey, China, and the Americas (Atzec empire famine). Experts think major eruptions have a “frequency” of one every 100,000 years. Through the 1960s and 1970s, public food reserves were considered salient to food security, and construction and maintenance of reserves were active components of food security policies and reforms. What would occur to our societies when World food reserves worldwide would last 74 days only and our systems are so deeply interconnected? But more recently relaxed to keeping the food storage for three months. A surge in attacks on Nigerian farmers is having a knock-on effect on the West African nation’s food reserves. In the following months severe anomalies hit the European meteorological conditions: very heavy rains in Germany and flooding in Poland, Teutonic knights’ castle cellars flooded, villages disappeared. From the results of the study, identify policy implications and recommendations for the ASEAN region, including optimal stockpiling modalities, and examine challenges and possible ways of implementation (e.g., determining the appropriate level of food reserve, timing of storage and release of emergency stocks, and financial sustainability). “The current stock exceeds one year’s annual output,” the outlet reported, which suggests the government has more than one year’s worth of food reserves, but not much more. 2013. Various governments shoring up their food reserves have also pushed markets higher. Anecdotal information shows that countries stockpile food, particularly rice, in different modalities. Meanwhile, rice-importing countries are increasingly pursuing rice self-sufficiency. Project report with comparative/cross-country analysis. The cause of all of the above was apparently the eruption of a super-volcano. The largest holders of gold are the central banks, international organizations and governments. However, this is not a reason to blind ourselves and state there is nothing we can do to increase resilience of our systems, protect people. In the United States, such programs have included the Farmer-Owned Grain Reserve (1977–1996), Food Security Wheat Reserve (1980–1996), Food Security Commodity Reserve (1996–1998), and most recently the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust (1998–). However, maintaining public food reserve infrastructure is costly, and met with difficulties. The Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) is a non-profit organization established by the Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization (SEAMEO) in 1966. that food reserves in a given country are likely to benefit other countries (especially importing countries) through a stabilising effect on regional or international markets. This page provides values for Gold Reserves reported in several countries part of Europe. And there isn’t much we can do to correct that. We do not even know if the culprit was “for sure” a super-volcano, or may have been a meteorite strike possibly connected with eruption(s) of smaller volcanoes. part of the overall strategy for food security reserves led collectively by three regional institutions: ECOWAS, WAEMU (Members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union) and CILSS. Food Security: What it means for a Food-Importing Country. A mega volcano eruption could bring the planet to starvation due to a “volcanic winter”. List of world countries by proven natural Gas Reserves in million cubic feet (MMcf), and per capita. Thus, there is great uncertainty on the frequency, but also on the number of the super-volcanoes. That is we may even be completely off with that window of 1/50,000 to 1/100,000 years frequency. The pumice raft and ash plumes constitute a serious problem. Similarly Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers can track ash plumes for air traffic safety. The project was implemented from May 2015 to October 2017 with Dr. Paul Teng of the Center for Non-Traditional Security Studies of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University (RSIS/NTS), Singapore and SEARCA's Senior Fellow on Food Security, being the Principal Researcher. The two most commonly cited are food availability during emergencies, and price stabilization. Interestingly that century featured a series of colder periods called the Little Ice Age (LIA). A surge in attacks on Nigerian farmers is having a knock-on effect on the country’s food reserves, Bloomberg has reported. In the following paragraphs we cite a couple examples, beyond the obvious ones of volcanic eruptions consequences. Krakatoa eruption in 1883, spewed pumice into the ocean and clogged harbors in Indonesia. Germany is the second largest holder of gold in the world. The crater bears the name of Kuwae caldera and layers of ashes witness for its eruption, including traditional knowledge of “disappearing land”. 2015).This policy anticipates future uncertainties in the market … Dust and ashes buried the local area. /AFP/Getty Images. All of the above unfortunately leads to a worrisome conclusion. The most widely used and comprehensive data on food supply and consumption is published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The same goes for tsunamis. Only a few years ago the “small” eruption of an Icelandic volcano forced to a halt the air traffic over Europe and transatlantic routes for almost a week. We also know today that a nearby supervolcano, the Campi Flegrei, lurks on the other side of Naples. An eruption of a supervolcano in Southern Italy would have enormous repercussions on the European continent, the Mediterranean basin and beyond, due to interdependencies. Food availability is an important dimension of a country's food security. In 1465 the sky in Naples turned deep azure. Of course we do not know the magnitude of a new eruption and the consequences could vary widely from local (Pompeii-like) to regional, and possibly multinational/continental scale. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Below is a list of the top 50 countries with the largest gold reserves as of January 30, 2018. In the following months severe anomalies hit the European meteorological conditions: very heavy rains in Germany and flooding in Poland, Teutonic knights’ castle cellars flooded, villages disappeared. A research group at the University of Southampton, UK, has a computer model tracking the movement of pumice rafts to deliver alerts as needed. The United States has the largest gold reserves in the world. The project initially focused on rice as the primary commodity, but included details on other commodities selected by partner institutions. Venezuela is a country with a lot of conflict, and poverty. Activity 3 – Policy brief and/or monograph, ____________________1 Teng, Paul P.S. The planet to starvation due to a “ frequency ” of Games of Thrones if we dare that... Not easy to spot in advance similarly volcanic ash Advisory Centers can track plumes... Food reserve infrastructure is costly, and met with difficulties eruption range widely and would. Up sufficient food reserves and stockpiles can play in national and regional food security: it. Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. world food reserves and stockpiles can play in national and regional food security the date that! When world food reserves has been a particularly big buyer of everything from corn to rice 100... Artificially cool down magma pumice into the ocean and clogged harbors in Indonesia MMcf ), Activity 3 – brief. 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